Martin A. Grove at Hollywood reporter was falling all over himself today trying to convince us that Hollywood has rebounded from its terrible, continuing spiral, because the second quarter of this year is ahead of last year's dismal performance.
In a couple of weeks I guess he's already forgotten how poorly the year started with the disappointment of Mission Impossible III.
While I don't doubt that the year will probably end up better than last year, the problems that Hollywood faces aren't going to go away.
The key to motion picture success is in their appeal to mass audiences, and mass audiences, at least in the U.S., are shrinking. The niche audience is the growing market that will have to be addressed. Hollywood, at this time, isn't set up to deal with it.
It's as simple as people have a lot more interests than they used to, from the cable channel offerings, satellite radio and user-generated online content to name just a few. The cost of attracting a lot of eyeballs is also skyrocketing so even if there are larger numbers, the cost to get them and the margins shrinking, still make it a lot less profitable than it used to be, or will be again.
With the trend moving toward user-generated media, the audience is becoming king, not only content. The genie is out of the bottle in this area and it's not going to be put back in. That's the reality that mass media and Hollywood have to face.
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