The only other year worse than last year in the history of the cable upfront was right after the 2001 terrorist attacks. The poor showing caused a lot of concern in the industry as people had no idea how the newest competitor, the Internet, would impact the years ahead.
As for this year at least, projections are that the upfront looks like it may grow over last year by approximately 5 percent.
“It should be a better year than last year,” says David Joyce, an analyst with investment firm Miller Tabak & Co. “It’s possible this could be a year for mid-single-digit growth for the cable networks.”
One of the indicators that point to this being a better year than last is the upswing in the scatter market, which is the time that is not sold in the upfront is made available. When that space receives higher spending, it suggests that there is a momentum building into the upfront and an increasing demand.
The key to this every year is the health of the economy which is considered strong this year, which last year there was a lot more unsurety which cost marketers to balk at the upfront.
Another aspect was the unknown concerning the Internet, which the agencies weren't sure on how much of the spend should go there, so they held back waiting to see the best place to put their money. This is a little clearer this year, and agencies have a slightly better grasp on that variable as part of the mix.
When you look at it from the overall last two years though, it still looks somewhat tentative. Even if spending grows by about 5 percent, it still is flat as compared to two years ago. It seems that even though there may be some increase over last year, the trend may go more toward a continual decrease in the upfront as new Internet marketing opportunities arise and they get their act together as well.
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