The TV upfront looks like it will be real slow this year, with some predicting that it will not move in the next few days, and some thinking it won't start moving until the middle of June or later.
This year has promised to be difficult as this transitional time has created a lot of uncertainty on how things should be measured.
All the participants in the process are bringing up their own key metrics that they feel should be the way costs should be determined. The idea of what will or will not be guaranteed is another big part of the slow moving process this year.
Writing for Media Daily News, Wayne Friedman says concerning Nielsen Media Research, "The big TV researcher has yet to come out with its minute-by-minute ratings--sometimes known as "commercial ratings"--which will be released at the end of the month. Despite the commercial-ratings issues, strength of the market will depend on core economics, say industry watchers, such as demand. Even then, prognosticators aren't in much agreement this year, offering wide-ranging estimates in sales performance."
For the broadcast TV market, there are huge swings in estimates of sales volume as some say its down by 10 percent to others saying its up by 3 percent against last year. A swing of 13 percent is huge be any measure. Syndication has more consensus as it's deemed to be up from 3 percent to 8 percent.
While there is a good chance that broadcast television will use a guarantee of commerical ratings plus an additional three days for DVR playback, with syndication and the cable networks especially, there is much more resistance and no way of knowing how that will work out.
Still, this isn't unprecedented as far as the time factor goes, as the last year things went quickly for the upfront was the 2000-2001 season. This year will not change the current trend.
Comment Preview