With Hollywood pulling out all stops this year and believing they were going to break the box office domestic record of $3.95 billion in 2004, it is starting to look like they're going to have a hard time doing it.
With some of the early boasting and predictions, plus putting out some of the biggest-name sequels in movie history, this could be considered a disastrous year if they don't break the record. In reality, with what was being put out, the record should have been shattered if going to movies was as popular as they assert.
From the beginning of the summer season we've talked about whether people would go a second time around to see the blockbuster movies, and the results show they haven't. Most of this years' sequels have dropped by 60 percent or more on the second weekend.
A lot of that is because the movies simply weren't that well made. The other major reason was there was a lot to see on the following weekend as the blockbusters started to be released weekly.
This isn't to say that the last half of the summer season won't sizzle, as there is still Disney's "Ratatouille" and "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix," which should do really well. These two movies probably have the best chance of retaining viewers over the second weekend than the other summer offerings so far, as they appeal to children and grownups. Still, you would have thought "Shrek the Third" would have done the same, and it didn't.
Some of the other movies that could give the last half a good boost are the comedy "Rush Hour 3," "Transformers," fantasy "Stardust" and "The Bourne Ultimatum."
It looks like expectations will have to be lowered and moderated. Before the summer season it was believed it would reach $4 billion. That looks like it will be very hard to accomplish now, as early films didn't perform near to expectations. With August being traditionally slow, it looks grim for the industry.
The problem with this year is they tried to hit a home run to prove that people still want to see movies in the way they used to. But when this much money is spent, along with the popular movies offered, and you still struggle to grow, it's time to really think through new strategies and ways of doing business.
I've been saying for a while that the industry needs to start thinking in terms of making most movies in the $20 to $30 million range, with a few in the higher ranges. We'll always have the occasional blockbuster that does well, but as we're seeing this year, it's not guaranteed to be sustainable. The industry needs to start thinking more and more about running things fiscally sound. The so-called creatives will just need to get used to it.
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