Cable television offered up almost 30 new scripted series this summer, prompting the question if it'll dig into the audience and profits of the broadcast networks.
For the summers I would say yes, for the long-term I would answer no.
The reason is the same one the networks can't continue offering up original scripted programming for the summer: costs.
As NBC chief researcher Alan Wurtzel says: "We all tried a little bit. But there is no way you can have a full-fledged, 52-week season, both financially and creatively."
Summers are typically run with unscripted reality shows for the broadcast networks, in order to get added revenue. They are pretty much locked into this unless something else is figured out.
The reason I don't see this being a season-long problem for the networks is the cable companies would end up with the same cost issues the broacast networks do. If they started adding scripted shows year-long, they would face the same pricing issues of the networks. It could be that the summer may become the ratings season for cable, as it gives them a chance to bring in some larger numbers with less competition.
Cable is also finding out the right show will still resonate with viewers and bring in big numbers. Think of the strong draw of "High School Musical 2," which draws big numbers for Disney (DIS). They also believe summer will eventually become just as strong in viewing as the rest of the year soon.
The one area cable is shining in this year is with younger viewers, as the big four Fox (NWS-A), ABC, CBS (CBS-A) and NBC (GE) have had a 14 percent drop in young viewers during the summer, while cable was up a little, according to Nielsen Media Research.
One thing that definitely does seem to be changing is the number of people that watch TV in the summer. Jack Wakshlag, the chief researcher at Turner Networks says in 1975 summer TV viewing was down 15 percent from the rest of the year, now that has shrunk to only 3 percent less.
Broadcast television may have to respond; not on a wholesale level, which is financially impossible, but maybe more on adding a new, less expensive series or two, in order to keep some momentum heading into the fall.
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