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Dec20
Will Sam Zell Survive the Buyout of Tribune Co.?

After almost nine months, the buyout of Chicago-based Tribune Co. closed today, making it a privately owned company. The new loans needed to acquire the company will make it one of the most debt-heavy businesses in America.

The question immediately arises on how Zell, who will be the new CEO and Chairman, will deal with this huge debt load. Just the interest alone on the deal will come to over $1 billion in 2008, based on about $13.2 billion in overall debt. 

When taking into account the advertising revenues are plunging in the business the Tribune operates in, it's a daunting task to say the least. The company doesn't have a huge presence in the online market either, making it more difficult for them to generate revenue through ad dollars, which is where the growth area is.

Zell has boasted that he's up for the challenge, as many have counted him out in the past, yet he has exceed their expectations. But in this case, it is very different.

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While I have no doubt Zell overall understands what he's gotten himself into, positive thinking and confidence won't be enough to make this work; there has to be a plan of action, which so far I haven't heard yet.

He's changed things already as far as leadership goes, and will probably continue. He's focusing the usual speed and innovation to make things happen ... all of which is fine. But buying in a market that is declining across the board, except for its Internet properties, makes this a thankless task.

What Zell will probably have to do is continue selling pieces of the company, while building up those that have a longer term possibility of success. Even if we were in a time of advertising growth overall, this would be a difficult deal to make work. Adding the declining market and projections of advertising cutbacks, it makes it about impossible to be successful without selling off a significant amount of the companies under the Tribune umbrella.

Of course the Chicago Cubs will be the first to go, and from there it's anybody's guess as to what company will go next.

What will be the greatest pressure will be putting together deals to pay off the huge debt, that include the factor of time. It puts them in a weaker position when other companies know they have to sell to pay off their huge debt.

How this will work out, is the Tribune Co. will diminish significantly in size as they move ahead, selling off assets as they go. There will be a time when the elimination of their debt load, along with hopefully growing their properties, where the need to sell won't be there. At that time they can choose to either hold the company as it is and grow it, or continue to sell from a stronger position.

Whatever happens, the company will be much smaller and leaner than it is today. That will be good for the company. The key will be making timely deals that can take care of the enormous short-term obligations facing the company. No matter what strategies are talked about or put in place, that's the biggest challenge facing them over the next couple years.


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» Sam Zell Immediately Shakes Up Tribune Co. as New Chairman and CEO from ManagersRealm
With the acquisition of Tribune Co. completed today, Sam Zell took little time to shake things up at the company, by installing a number of new people in key positions.Understanding the immediate importance to get things moving quickly in the... [Read More]

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