With another reality show scoring big during the writer's strike, it may show the future of television and growing impotency of the writers in that regard.
The newest reality hit is "The Moment of Truth" from Fox (NYSE:NWS-A), which enjoyed a 10.2 rating/24 share in the key 18-49 demo.
Although it was ensured good numbers in the beginning of the show because of the "American Idol" lead-in, it has a lot of potential because it held the audience better than any other show following "Idol," holding 94 percent of the audience. That beats other shows like "House" and "Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader," which have followed the popular talent show.
Couple this with the surprise reality show hit for NBC (NYSE:GE), "American Gladiators," and there has to be concern by the Writers Guild over the great results recorded. Gladiators drew a solid 10.1 million viewers in its last airing, helping NBC win last Monday night's ratings.
The success of "The Moment of Truth" makes it the best new show of the season so far, outperforming another Fox newcomer, "Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, which held that distinction until "Truth."
Another factor that will probably affect the writers permanently, will be the state of the economy, which should dry up television advertising over the next year ... and possibly longer. That will force the networks to increasingly look at ways to cut back on costs, and one of those key ways is through continue developig reality TV.
Regardless of what happens in the eventual ending of the strike, and the terms reached, I think we'll begin to see a declining number of writers connected to Hollywood and television.
Part of the reason is the writers allowed their union leaders to talk them into an ill-advised strike, at what in my opinion was the wrong time, and push the studios into developing alternative, unscripted programming. I don't think they'll ever go back to pre-strike numbers ever.
Of course there'll still be scripted shows, but a new Hollywood is emerging where running lean and generating a profit is being forced on the industry by competitive pressures. That's good for the industry, and bad for some writers. I don't ever see them recovering from it overall. Although the better writers will continue to flourish, many of the others won't be needed any longer.
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